Almere City FC
vs
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Almere City FC 2–0 FC Eindhoven
The model makes it 51% Almere City FC, 26% draw, 23% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Almere City FC 2.03, FC Eindhoven 0.98.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Almere City FC are 2nd on 16 points from 8 games; FC Eindhoven are 13th on 10 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Dordrecht.
- FC Eindhoven have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to NAC Breda.
- Last 6 meetings: Almere City FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended FC Eindhoven 3–2 Almere City FC.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almere City FC at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
Almere City FC
- L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
- W1-0Heracles18 September 2026
- W4-0away to MVV11 September 2026
- L0-1Jong Ajax4 September 2026
- W4-1away to De Graafschap29 August 2026
FC Eindhoven
- L2-4away to NAC Breda26 September 2026
- W3-1Emmen18 September 2026
- W2-1Dordrecht11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Utrecht7 September 2026
- L1-3Heracles30 August 2026
What these results say
- Almere City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Eindhoven scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Eindhoven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
- 21 February 2026FC Eindhoven 3–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2025Almere City FC 5–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 26 May 2023Almere City FC 3–1 FC EindhovenEredivisie
- 22 May 2023FC Eindhoven 1–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
- 10 February 2023FC Eindhoven 0–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 12 September 2022Almere City FC 1–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven
Almere City FC
- F. Druijf6 goals3 assists
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.27 for FC Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Almere City FC and 0.98 for FC Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Almere City FC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Eindhoven rate 0.57 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 19.5% chance of the title and FC Eindhoven 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Almere City FC against 0.98 for FC Eindhoven. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.81 for FC Eindhoven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Almere City FC at home · FC Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Almere City FC 8, FC Eindhoven 8.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC Eindhoven have let in 4 there.
FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Almere City FC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Almere City FC
- at Emmen17 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs Roda23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Waalwijk30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Jong AZ6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
FC Eindhoven
- vs Vitesse16 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
- vs Jong PSV U2123 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- at Helmond Sport30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- vs Jong Ajax6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.