FC Volendam
vs
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC Volendam 1–0 Vitesse
The model makes it 44% FC Volendam, 30% draw, 26% Vitesse — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Volendam 1.51, Vitesse 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Volendam are 11th on 12 points from 8 games; Vitesse are 8th on 13 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to VVV Venlo.
- Vitesse have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Heracles.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2025, ended FC Volendam 4–0 Vitesse.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Volendam vs Vitesse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Volendam at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Volendam vs Vitesse
FC Volendam
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
- W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026
- L3-5away to Emmen4 September 2026
- W6-1Dordrecht28 August 2026
Vitesse
- L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2119 September 2026
- L0-1away to Roda12 September 2026
- W2-1FC OSS4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Den Bosch28 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Volendam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Volendam had three goals or more.
- Vitesse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs Vitesse
- 17 January 2025FC Volendam 4–0 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 4 October 2024Vitesse 1–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 18 February 2024Vitesse 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
- 11 August 2023FC Volendam 1–2 VitesseEredivisie
- 18 February 2023FC Volendam 2–0 VitesseEredivisie
- 17 September 2022Vitesse 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
Leading scorers: FC Volendam and Vitesse
FC Volendam
- H. Veerman9 goals2 assists
- R. Niemeijer4 goals2 assists
Vitesse
- N. Bannis7 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Volendam carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.41 for Vitesse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for FC Volendam and 0.90 for Vitesse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Volendam rate 0.65 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitesse rate 0.59 and 1.43.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vitesse, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Volendam a 10.1% chance of the title and Vitesse 5.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Volendam against 0.90 for Vitesse. FC Volendam's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.43 for Vitesse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Volendam at home · Vitesse away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Volendam 8, Vitesse 8.
FC Volendam score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Vitesse have let in 3 there.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); FC Volendam have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Volendam
- at Waalwijk18 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- vs Jong Utrecht23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- vs De Graafschap30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- at Helmond Sport6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
Vitesse
- at FC Eindhoven16 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- vs Emmen23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
- at Jong Ajax2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs De Graafschap8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.