Heracles
vs
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Heracles 2–1 Waalwijk
The model makes it 41% Heracles, 29% draw, 30% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Heracles 1.62, Waalwijk 1.20.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Heracles are top on 22 points from 9 games; Waalwijk are 7th on 13 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Heracles have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Helmond Sport.
- Waalwijk have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Roda.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2025, ended Heracles 3–1 Waalwijk.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Heracles vs Waalwijk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Heracles vs Waalwijk
Heracles
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
- W3-2Jong AZ11 September 2026
- W5-0De Graafschap4 September 2026
Waalwijk
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
- W4-2NAC Breda4 September 2026
- D2-2Jong PSV U2128 August 2026
What these results say
- Heracles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 22 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heracles vs Waalwijk
- 2 August 2025Heracles 3–1 WaalwijkFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2025Waalwijk 0–0 HeraclesEredivisie
- 23 November 2024Heracles 2–2 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 5 May 2024Heracles 0–5 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 12 January 2024Waalwijk 1–2 HeraclesEredivisie
- 11 May 2022Waalwijk 2–0 HeraclesEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heracles and Waalwijk
Heracles
- J. N'djoli11 goals1 assist
- T. van Gilst6 goals2 assists
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heracles carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.43 for Waalwijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Heracles and 1.20 for Waalwijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heracles rate 0.63 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waalwijk rate 0.68 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heracles a 28.3% chance of the title and Waalwijk 8.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Heracles against 1.20 for Waalwijk. Heracles's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.58 for Waalwijk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heracles at home · Waalwijk away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Heracles 9, Waalwijk 8.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Waalwijk have let in 1 there.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Heracles have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Heracles
- at MVV18 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- at NAC Breda23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs FC OSS2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
- vs Roda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- at Dordrecht14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
Waalwijk
- vs FC Volendam18 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at De Graafschap23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- vs Almere City FC30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at FC OSS6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.