Ponte Preta
vs
Atletico Goianiense
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ponte Preta 0–2 Atletico Goianiense
The model makes it 17% Ponte Preta, 26% draw, 57% Atletico Goianiense — fair odds of 5.88, 3.85 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (14%).
Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.69, Atletico Goianiense 2.09.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Ponte Preta are bottom on 13 points from 30 games; Atletico Goianiense are 6th on 49 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Ponte Preta have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Botafogo SP.
- Atletico Goianiense have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Goias.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Ponte Preta.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Goianiense at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense
Ponte Preta
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
- L0-6away to Londrina15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sport Recife11 September 2026
- L0-2São Bernardo6 September 2026
Atletico Goianiense
- W1-0away to Goias26 September 2026
- L0-1away to São Bernardo19 September 2026
- W4-0Criciuma13 September 2026
- W2-1Ceara10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Juventude5 September 2026
What these results say
- Ponte Preta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Goianiense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 30 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 13 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense
- 28 June 2026Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 18 March 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Ponte PretaCopa Do Brasil
- 15 October 2023Ponte Preta 0–2 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 23 June 2023Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 14 October 2019Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 17 July 2019Ponte Preta 0–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
Leading scorers: Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Atletico Goianiense
- Gustavo Coutinho13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ponte Preta carry a model rating of 5.79 against 6.5 for Atletico Goianiense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.69 goals for Ponte Preta and 2.09 for Atletico Goianiense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ponte Preta rate 0.33 in attack and 2.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Goianiense rate 0.63 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ponte Preta a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Goianiense 3.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Goianiense the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Ponte Preta against 2.09 for Atletico Goianiense. Ponte Preta's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.28 for Atletico Goianiense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ponte Preta at home · Atletico Goianiense away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ponte Preta 30, Atletico Goianiense 30.
Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Atletico Goianiense have let in 8 there.
Atletico Goianiense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Ponte Preta have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ponte Preta
- vs Fortaleza EC24 Oct · Serie Bwin 15%
- at Criciuma31 Oct · Serie Bwin 13%
Atletico Goianiense
- vs Novorizontino24 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Fortaleza EC31 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.