Sport Recife
vs
Fortaleza EC
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sport Recife 2–1 Fortaleza EC
The model makes it 38% Sport Recife, 29% draw, 33% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.51, Fortaleza EC 1.35.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Sport Recife are 9th on 47 points from 31 games; Fortaleza EC are 5th on 53 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Sport Recife have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Athletic Club MG.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Nautico Recife.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortaleza EC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport Recife.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Recife at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CRB16 September 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta11 September 2026
Fortaleza EC
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026
- D1-1Ceara13 September 2026
- W1-0Avai9 September 2026
What these results say
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sport Recife had three goals or more.
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sport Recife | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 47 |
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
- 28 June 2026Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 28 May 2026Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
- 21 May 2026Fortaleza EC 1–2 Sport RecifeCopa do Nordeste
- 30 April 2026Fortaleza EC 2–0 Sport RecifeCopa do Nordeste
- 27 September 2025Fortaleza EC 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie A
- 26 April 2025Sport Recife 0–0 Fortaleza ECSerie A
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
- Chrystian Barletta11 goals3 assists
- Perotti11 goals1 assist
Fortaleza EC
- Maílton7 goals1 assist
- Vitinho6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sport Recife carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.59 for Fortaleza EC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Sport Recife and 1.35 for Fortaleza EC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sport Recife rate 0.71 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza EC rate 0.78 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortaleza EC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sport Recife a 0.2% chance of the title and Fortaleza EC 15.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Recife the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sport Recife against 1.35 for Fortaleza EC. Sport Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.31 for Fortaleza EC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sport Recife at home · Fortaleza EC away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sport Recife 31, Fortaleza EC 31.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Fortaleza EC have let in 3 there.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Sport Recife have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sport Recife
- vs Criciuma24 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Botafogo SP31 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Operario-PR7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Fortaleza EC
- at Ponte Preta24 Oct · Serie Bwin 63%
- vs Atletico Goianiense31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Novorizontino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.