Sportivo Luqueno
vs
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
The model makes it 53% Sportivo Luqueno, 26% draw, 21% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sportivo Luqueno 1.79, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.91.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sportivo Luqueno: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sportivo Luqueno are 9th on 13 points from 14 games; Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 4 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Luqueno are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Cerro Porteno.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–2 Sportivo Luqueno.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sportivo Luqueno at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Sportivo Luqueno
- L0-3Cerro Porteno10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sportivo Trinidense5 October 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani25 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia13 September 2026
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- D1-1Sportivo Trinidense10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Recoleta28 September 2026
- L0-3Olimpia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Ameliano11 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Luqueno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sportivo Luqueno
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 64% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 9 August 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 May 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 13 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 October 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Intermedia
- 24 June 2022Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
- 12 November 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
The two sides
Sportivo Luqueno carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.04 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Sportivo Luqueno and 0.91 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Luqueno rate 0.59 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Sp. San Lorenzo rate 0.35 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sportivo Luqueno the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno against 0.91 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Sportivo Luqueno's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.86 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Luqueno at home · Club Sp. San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Luqueno 14, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 14.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Luqueno
- at Libertad Asuncion29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 15%
- vs Nacional Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- at Rubio NU8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 25%
- vs 2 de Mayo15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at Sportivo Ameliano18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- vs Cerro Porteno29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Libertad Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- at Nacional Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 8%
- vs Rubio NU15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at 2 de Mayo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.