BSK Banja Luka
vs
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: BSK Banja Luka 2–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
The model makes it 38% BSK Banja Luka, 28% draw, 34% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: BSK Banja Luka 1.63, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.48.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- BSK Banja Luka are 8th on 8 points from 8 games; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 4th on 12 points from 8 games — Premijer Liga.
- BSK Banja Luka are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 4-4 draw at home to Radnik Bijeljina.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Čelik.
All Bosnian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSK Banja Luka at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka
- D4-4Radnik Bijeljina19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Siroki Brijeg12 September 2026
- W3-2Čelik5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zrinjski1 September 2026
- L0-1Sloga Doboj29 August 2026
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- D1-1Čelik18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sloga Doboj13 September 2026
- W2-0FK Sarajevo9 September 2026
- W3-1Velež6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka2 September 2026
What these results say
- BSK Banja Luka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 7 August 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1 BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
BSK Banja Luka carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.19 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for BSK Banja Luka and 1.48 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BSK Banja Luka rate 0.56 in attack and 2.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo rate 0.47 and 1.79.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BSK Banja Luka a 0% chance of the title and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSK Banja Luka the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for BSK Banja Luka against 1.48 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. BSK Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.79 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
BSK Banja Luka at home · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: BSK Banja Luka 8, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 8.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); BSK Banja Luka have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
BSK Banja Luka
- at Velež24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 31%
- vs FK Sarajevo31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 32%
- at Sloga Doboj7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 35%
- vs Zrinjski21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 26%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- at FK Sarajevo24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 25%
- vs Zrinjski31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- at Siroki Brijeg7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 34%
- vs Borac Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.