Charlton
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Charlton 0–1 Bolton
The model makes it 34% Charlton, 30% draw, 36% Bolton — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.11, Bolton 1.17.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
A tight game: Charlton and Bolton are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Charlton's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Bolton's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Charlton are 17th on 14 points from 11 games; Bolton are 15th on 14 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Watford.
- Bolton have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Southampton.
- Last 6 meetings: Bolton 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 January 2025, ended Bolton 1–2 Charlton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charlton vs Bolton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 36% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charlton vs Bolton
Charlton
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Burnley13 October 2026
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
Bolton
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Wolves13 October 2026
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Charlton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Bolton
- 21 January 2025Bolton 1–2 CharltonLeague One
- 24 August 2024Charlton 2–0 BoltonLeague One
- 17 February 2024Bolton 3–3 CharltonLeague One
- 28 October 2023Charlton 0–2 BoltonLeague One
- 28 January 2023Charlton 1–2 BoltonLeague One
- 3 September 2022Bolton 3–1 CharltonLeague One
Leading scorers: Charlton and Bolton
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.53 for Bolton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Charlton and 1.17 for Bolton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.53 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bolton rate 0.73 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charlton a 0% chance of the title and Bolton 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bolton the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Charlton against 1.17 for Bolton. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.39 for Bolton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Charlton at home · Bolton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CharltonBolton
Charlton are 13th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Bolton are 13th after 11 (between 1st and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Charlton 11, Bolton 11.
Charlton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Bolton have let in 1 there.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Charlton have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Charlton
- vs Sheffield Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- at Wolves21 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
- vs Lincoln24 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Bolton
- at Derby6 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Portsmouth21 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- vs West Brom25 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.