Chapecoense
vs
Fluminense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Chapecoense 1–2 Fluminense
The model makes it 24% Chapecoense, 25% draw, 51% Fluminense — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.16, Fluminense 1.94.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Fluminense are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Chapecoense are bottom on 18 points from 29 games; Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Chapecoense are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Atletico Paranaense.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Fluminense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Fluminense
Chapecoense
- L1-4Atletico Paranaense12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Vitoria7 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
Fluminense
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
- W4-0Coritiba9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 18 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fluminense
Chance to finish in the top four · 70% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Fluminense
- 26 April 2026Fluminense 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 10 December 2021Fluminense 3–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 8 September 2021Chapecoense 1–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 26 October 2019Fluminense 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 13 June 2019Chapecoense 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 24 September 2018Chapecoense 1–2 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Fluminense
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chapecoense carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.86 for Fluminense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Chapecoense and 1.94 for Fluminense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chapecoense rate 0.73 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fluminense rate 1.02 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.94 for Fluminense. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1 for Fluminense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chapecoense at home · Fluminense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Chapecoense 29, Fluminense 30.
Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Fluminense have let in 9 there.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Chapecoense have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Chapecoense
- at RB Bragantino28 Oct · Serie Awin 15%
- vs Mirassol3 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
- at Remo18 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
Fluminense
- vs Internacional28 Oct · Serie Awin 56%
- at Vitoria6 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.