Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Velez Sarsfield, 17% draw, 21% Independiente — fair odds of 1.61, 5.88 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 62% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarciaD
- 32T. SilveroD
- 16L. MagallanD
- 3E. GomezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 10D. ValdesM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 33F. Villalba
- 34A. BussoG
- 5C. BaezaM
- 2E. MammanaD
- 17A. VeronF
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 18S. EscobarD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 48L. FelerM
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 26K. LomonacoD
- 22F. ZabalaD
- 16M. Perez CurciM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 28M. GutierrezM
- 7S. MontielM
- 19M. AbaldoM
- 9G. AvalosF
- 1J. BlazquezG
- 8M. MezaF
- 3J. De IrastorzaD
- 20F. CruzM
- 18F. ValdezF
- 4S. AriasD
- 10L. CabralM
- 32D. MartinezM
- 14L. MillanM
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
- W3-1away to Talleres Cordoba30 July 2026
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba24 July 2026
Independiente
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
- 3 August 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 January 2026Independiente 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 August 2025Velez Sarsfield 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2025Independiente 3–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 September 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 IndependienteCopa Argentina
- 26 May 2024Independiente 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
- M. Lanzini6 goals
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.