Velez Sarsfield
vs
Independiente
The model makes it 62% Velez Sarsfield, 17% draw, 21% Independiente — fair odds of 1.61, 5.88 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Velez Sarsfield 3.01, Independiente 1.79.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
- 31 January 2026Independiente 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 August 2025Velez Sarsfield 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2025Independiente 3–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 September 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 IndependienteCopa Argentina
- 26 May 2024Independiente 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 January 2024Velez Sarsfield 0–1 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velez Sarsfield the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.01 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield against 1.79 for Independiente. Velez Sarsfield's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.5 for Independiente.