3 August 2026, 19:45 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Sarmiento Junin, 19% draw, 58% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 4.35, 5.26 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarmiento Junin93%Draw7%Independiente Rivadavia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Martinez
12'
31'
⚽M. Fernandez (pen)assist: M. Fernandez
31'
⚽M. Fernandez
⚽J. Mavilla
37'
M. Martinez
41'
46'
🔁T. Bottariout: J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
46'
🔁M. Fernandezout: A. Arce
46'
🔁R. Atencioout: L. Sequeira
🔁J. Contreraout: U. Gimenez
53'
64'
🔁L. Buccaout: G. Rios
🔁J. Marabelout: Diego Churin
73'
🔁J. Mavillaout: G. Gonzalez
73'
79'
🔁F. Sartoriout: J. M. Elordi
🔁J. Herreraout: G. Arturia
87'
90+3'
I. Villalba

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia

31%Possession69%
9Shots19
3On target7
3Corners7
0.55xG1.54

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin2 from 0.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
Independiente Rivadavia1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 8S. SalleD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuarezD
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 24J. HerreraF
  • 27J. MarabelF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 7P. MagninF
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 10J. RenteriaM
  • 9Diego ChurinF
  • 11G. GonzalezF
  • 5M. GarciaM
  • 6G. ArturiaD
Coach: Facundo Sava
Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
  • 30N. BolcatoG
  • 20A. RiepD
  • 40I. VillalbaD
  • 13A. OsellaD
  • 27D. CregoD
  • 32K. A. VazquezM
  • 5T. BottariM
  • 8L. BuccaM
  • 19R. AtencioM
  • 10M. FernandezF
  • 43F. SartoriF
Substitutes
  • 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
  • 7V. RamisF
  • 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
  • 2L. CostaD
  • 34S. MoreyraM
  • 11G. RiosM
  • 42S. StuderD
  • 55M. SalvoD
  • 9A. ArceF
Coach: Alfredo Berti

Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia

Sarmiento Junin

  • L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026
  • L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026

Independiente Rivadavia

  • W2-1Huracan30 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia

  • 3 August 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 February 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 May 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 May 2019Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
  • 19 May 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
  • 13 March 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Independiente Rivadavia

Sarmiento Junin

  • J. Marabel12 goals4 assists

Independiente Rivadavia

  • A. Arce9 goals1 assists
  • F. Sartori8 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.