Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 3 · 3 August 2026, 19:45 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin

The model makes it 23% Sarmiento Junin, 19% draw, 58% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 4.35, 5.26 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).

Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.64, Independiente Rivadavia 2.57.

Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

75%
Both teams to score
79%
Over 2.5 goals
21%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-2 8%1-3 7%2-2 7%

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia

  • 4 February 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 May 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 May 2019Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
  • 19 May 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
  • 13 March 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
  • 18 March 2018Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 2.57 for Independiente Rivadavia. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.11 for Independiente Rivadavia.