Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Sarmiento Junin, 19% draw, 58% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 4.35, 5.26 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuarezD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16M. MartinezM
- 21J. MavillaM
- 24J. HerreraF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 7P. MagninF
- 20U. GimenezD
- 23E. GimenezM
- 10J. RenteriaM
- 9Diego ChurinF
- 11G. GonzalezF
- 5M. GarciaM
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 20A. RiepD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 13A. OsellaD
- 27D. CregoD
- 32K. A. VazquezM
- 5T. BottariM
- 8L. BuccaM
- 19R. AtencioM
- 10M. FernandezF
- 43F. SartoriF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 7V. RamisF
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 2L. CostaD
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 11G. RiosM
- 42S. StuderD
- 55M. SalvoD
- 9A. ArceF
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026
- L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Huracan30 July 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 21 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 4 February 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 May 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2019Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 19 May 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
- 13 March 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
The full Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Independiente Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
- J. Florentín71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarmiento Junin beat Independiente Rivadavia 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente Rivadavia at 58% and given a win for Sarmiento Junin 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Martinez 12' for Sarmiento Junin, M. Fernandez 31' for Independiente Rivadavia, J. Mavilla 37' for Sarmiento Junin. On expected goals it finished 0.55–1.54.