Ararat-Armenia
vs
AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Ararat-Armenia 0–2 AZ Alkmaar
The model makes it 13% Ararat-Armenia, 20% draw, 67% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 7.69, 5.00 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 0.77, AZ Alkmaar 2.36.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AZ Alkmaar are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ararat-Armenia are 33rd on 0 points from 1 game; AZ Alkmaar are 26th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Feyenoord.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia
- L1-4Sparta Praha16 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Wilson10
AZ Alkmaar
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ararat-Armenia carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.91 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Ararat-Armenia and 2.36 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ararat-Armenia rate 0.52 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 1.00 and 0.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia against 2.36 for AZ Alkmaar. Ararat-Armenia's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.89 for AZ Alkmaar.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ararat-Armenia
- at Torreense5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 13%
- at Red Bull Salzburg26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 8%
- vs NEC Nijmegen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 18%
- vs Celje21 Jan · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 23%
AZ Alkmaar
- vs Twente25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 40%
- at Ajax31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Juventus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.