Borussia Dortmund
vs
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 67% Borussia Dortmund, 19% draw, 14% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.31, Hamburger SV 0.99.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
- 21 March 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 8 November 2025Hamburger SV 1–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 10 February 2018Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 20 September 2017Hamburger SV 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 4 April 2017Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 5 November 2016Hamburger SV 2–5 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
The two sides
Borussia Dortmund carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.7 for Hamburger SV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.99 for Hamburger SV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Dortmund rate 1.11 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hamburger SV rate 0.81 and 1.10.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 0.99 for Hamburger SV. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.1 for Hamburger SV.