1. FC Köln
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 51% 1. FC Köln, 23% draw, 26% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.92, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.34.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- 21 February 20261. FC Köln 2–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 3 October 20251899 Hoffenheim 0–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 11 February 20241899 Hoffenheim 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 16 September 20231. FC Köln 1–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 22 April 20231899 Hoffenheim 1–3 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 30 October 20221. FC Köln 1–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Köln carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.88 for 1899 Hoffenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.34 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Köln rate 1.06 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.01 and 0.96.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Köln the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 1.34 for 1899 Hoffenheim. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.96 for 1899 Hoffenheim.