Sevilla
vs
Atletico Madrid
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 31% Sevilla, 25% draw, 44% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.42, Atletico Madrid 1.71.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
- 11 April 2026Sevilla 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 November 2025Atletico Madrid 3–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 6 April 2025Sevilla 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 8 December 2024Atletico Madrid 4–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 11 February 2024Sevilla 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 25 January 2024Atletico Madrid 1–0 SevillaCopa del Rey
The two sides
Sevilla carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.11 for Atletico Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Sevilla and 1.71 for Atletico Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sevilla rate 0.78 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Madrid rate 1.55 and 0.96.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sevilla against 1.71 for Atletico Madrid. Sevilla's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.55/0.96 for Atletico Madrid.