RB Leipzig
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 62% RB Leipzig, 19% draw, 19% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.44, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 11 April 2026RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 28 November 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 29 March 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 9 November 2024RB Leipzig 0–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 17 February 2024RB Leipzig 2–0 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga
- 23 September 2023Borussia Monchengladbach 0–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
The two sides
RB Leipzig carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.79 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.44 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.30 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Leipzig rate 1.28 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.89 and 1.01.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.3 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.28/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.01 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.