FSV Mainz 05
vs
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 50% FSV Mainz 05, 30% draw, 20% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.00, 3.33 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.28, SC Paderborn 07 0.70.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
- 29 February 2020FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 5 October 2019SC Paderborn 07 1–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 31 January 2015FSV Mainz 05 5–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 24 August 2014SC Paderborn 07 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FSV Mainz 05 carry a model rating of 7 against 7.02 for SC Paderborn 07. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.70 for SC Paderborn 07. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FSV Mainz 05 rate 1.23 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.55 and 0.55.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.7 for SC Paderborn 07. FSV Mainz 05's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/0.55 for SC Paderborn 07.