Concarneau
vs
Gobelins
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Concarneau 1–0 Gobelins
The model makes it 45% Concarneau, 31% draw, 24% Gobelins — fair odds of 2.22, 3.23 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Concarneau 1.36, Gobelins 0.73.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Concarneau are 4th on 13 points from 8 games; Gobelins are 9th on 12 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Concarneau are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bourg-en-bresse 01.
- Gobelins have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bastia.
- Last 6 meetings: Concarneau 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 April 2026, ended Concarneau 0–0 Gobelins.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Concarneau vs Gobelins
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Concarneau at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Concarneau vs Gobelins
Concarneau
- D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026
- W2-0Caen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aubagne12 September 2026
- D2-2Thionville Lusitanos5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Valenciennes29 August 2026
Gobelins
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
- D1-1Bourg-en-bresse 0119 September 2026
- L0-2away to Caen12 September 2026
- D0-0Aubagne5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Thionville Lusitanos29 August 2026
What these results say
- Concarneau went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Concarneau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Gobelins had two goals or fewer.
- Gobelins failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Concarneau | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Gobelins | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Concarneau vs Gobelins
- 30 April 2026Concarneau 0–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 12 December 2025Gobelins 0–0 ConcarneauLigue 3
- 16 May 2025Gobelins 2–1 ConcarneauLigue 3
- 16 August 2024Concarneau 2–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 14 April 2023Concarneau 3–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 25 November 2022Gobelins 1–1 ConcarneauLigue 3
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Concarneau carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6 for Gobelins. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Concarneau and 0.73 for Gobelins. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Concarneau rate 0.44 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gobelins rate 0.33 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Concarneau a 0.8% chance of the title and Gobelins 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Concarneau the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Concarneau against 0.73 for Gobelins. Concarneau's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.9 for Gobelins.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Concarneau at home · Gobelins away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Concarneau 8, Gobelins 8.
Concarneau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Gobelins have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Concarneau
- vs Bastia17 Oct · Ligue 3win 33%
- at Rouen31 Oct · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Fleury 917 Nov · Ligue 3win 37%
- at La Roche VF21 Nov · Ligue 3win 24%
- vs Le Puy Foot5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
Gobelins
- vs Rouen17 Oct · Ligue 3win 27%
- at Fleury 9131 Oct · Ligue 3win 21%
- vs La Roche VF7 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Le Puy Foot21 Nov · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Versailles5 Dec · Ligue 3win 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.