Fleury 91
vs
Caen
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Fleury 91 2–1 Caen
The model makes it 44% Fleury 91, 27% draw, 29% Caen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fleury 91 1.97, Caen 1.40.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fleury 91 are 14th on 9 points from 8 games; Caen are 3rd on 15 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Fleury 91 have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Aubagne.
- Caen have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Rouen.
- Last 2 meetings: Caen 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Caen 1–0 Fleury 91.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fleury 91 vs Caen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleury 91 at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fleury 91 vs Caen
Fleury 91
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
- D1-1Thionville Lusitanos19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Valenciennes12 September 2026
- W6-1Villefranche5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Quevilly29 August 2026
Caen
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
- L0-2away to Concarneau19 September 2026
- W2-0Gobelins12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 015 September 2026
- L0-1Bastia27 August 2026
What these results say
- Fleury 91 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleury 91 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Fleury 91.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Caen had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Fleury 91 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 3 | Caen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleury 91 vs Caen
- 6 February 2026Caen 1–0 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 29 August 2025Fleury 91 1–2 CaenLigue 3
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fleury 91 carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.24 for Caen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Fleury 91 and 1.40 for Caen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleury 91 rate 0.60 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Caen rate 0.59 and 2.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Caen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleury 91 a 2.7% chance of the title and Caen 7.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleury 91 the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Fleury 91 against 1.40 for Caen. Fleury 91's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.02 for Caen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fleury 91 at home · Caen away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Fleury 91 8, Caen 8.
Fleury 91 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Caen have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fleury 91
- at Bourg-en-bresse 0117 Oct · Ligue 3win 45%
- vs Gobelins31 Oct · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Concarneau7 Nov · Ligue 3win 34%
- vs Rouen21 Nov · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Bastia5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
Caen
- vs La Roche VF15 Oct · Ligue 3win 39%
- at Le Puy Foot31 Oct · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Versailles7 Nov · Ligue 3win 44%
- at Amiens19 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- vs Cannes3 Dec · Ligue 3win 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.