Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Oțelul 1-0 Arges Pitesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Oțelul, 28% draw, 34% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti
Line-ups
- 1Cosmin Dur-BozoancăG
- 5Habib SyllaD
- 3Giannis ChristopoulosD
- 6Paul IacobD
- 28Miguel SilvaD
- 17Andrei CiobanuM
- 8João LameiraM
- 27Pedro NunoM
- 30Matei FrunzăF
- 9Patrick FernandesF
- 10AndrézinhoF
- 2Milen ZhelevD
- 24Denis BordunM
- 39Teodor LunguM
- 12Darius PaharnicuG
- 13Mario ContraG
- 16Dan NeicuD
- 20Robert OlteanuM
- 18Dragoș AfteneM
- 7João PaulinoF
- 34Cătălin CăbuzG
- 23Florin BorțaD
- 6Mario TudoseD
- 15Guilherme GaruttiD
- 2Costinel TofanD
- 27Rober SierraM
- 69Oluwatobiloba AlagbeM
- 22Vadim RațăM
- 17Ricardo MatosF
- 11Yanis PîrvuF
- 99Robert MoldoveanuF
- 16Ionuț RădescuM
- 26Dorinel OanceaD
- 19Claudiu MicovschiF
- 92Taylor LuvamboD
- 9Gabriel CharpentierF
- 1Cătălin StratonG
- 4Evagoras AntoniouD
- 96Silviu BalaureM
- 20Patrick DulceaM
Form going into Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti
Oțelul
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti7 August 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Uta Arad24 July 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj18 July 2026
Arges Pitesti
- D1-1Farul Constanta14 August 2026
- W1-0away to Universitatea Craiova9 August 2026
- W1-0Csikszereda31 July 2026
- W1-0Petrolul Ploiesti24 July 2026
- L0-2away to FCSB17 July 2026
What these results say
- Oțelul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Arges Pitesti had two goals or fewer.
- Arges Pitesti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Oțelul | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti
- 20 December 2025Oțelul 2–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 18 August 2025Arges Pitesti 2–0 OțelulLiga I
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Arges Pitesti
Oțelul
- Patrick4 goals
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.