Kosovo vs Austria UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Kosovo 1-1 Austria.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Kosovo, 30% draw, 41% Austria — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Austria at 41%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kosovo vs Austria
Line-ups
- 16A. SaipiG
- 5L. DellovaD
- 4I. KrasniqiD
- 2R. RaciD
- 15M. VojvodaM
- 23L. AvdullahuM
- 20V. HodžaM
- 13D. GallapeniM
- 10E. ZhegrovaF
- 18V. MuriqiF
- 14B. ZabërgjaF
- 12V. BekajG
- 21L. EmërllahuM
- 1A. MurićG
- 8V. MatoshiM
- 17E. KrasniqiF
- 22M. KorenicaF
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 6Erblin OsmaniM
- 7M. RashicaM
- 1A. SchlagerG
- 5S. PoschD
- 18F. BacherD
- 3K. DansoD
- 20K. LaimerD
- 6N. SeiwaldM
- 4X. SchlagerM
- 21P. WimmerM
- 10R. SchmidM
- 22A. PrassM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 13M. BignettiG
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 23M. FriedlD
- 19M. GrüllF
- 9S. KalajdzicF
- 7C. LangM
- 15P. LienhartD
- 16P. MweneD
- 12F. WiegeleG
Form going into Kosovo vs Austria
Kosovo
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Israel1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Austria27 September 2026
- W1-0Rep. Of Ireland24 September 2026
Austria
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2away to Rep. Of Ireland1 October 2026
- W3-1Kosovo27 September 2026
- W3-1Israel24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kosovo vs Austria
- 27 September 2026Austria 3–1 KosovoUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Kosovo and Austria drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Austria at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fisnik Asllani 70' for Kosovo, Christoph Lang 85' for Austria.
How the call on Kosovo v Austria has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is Kosovo's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Kosovo win29%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Austria win41%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.