Vila Nova
vs
Cuiaba
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vila Nova 1–0 Cuiaba
The model makes it 41% Vila Nova, 30% draw, 29% Cuiaba — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vila Nova 1.46, Cuiaba 1.06.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Vila Nova are 2nd on 54 points from 30 games; Cuiaba are 11th on 43 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Londrina.
- Cuiaba have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to CRB.
- Last 6 meetings: Cuiaba 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 June 2026, ended Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vila Nova at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Vila Nova
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avai15 September 2026
- W2-0Goias10 September 2026
- L0-5away to Athletic Club MG4 September 2026
Cuiaba
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novorizontino13 September 2026
- W3-0Athletic Club MG8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Criciuma4 September 2026
What these results say
- Vila Nova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vila Nova had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
- 14 June 2026Cuiaba 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 24 September 2025Vila Nova 2–2 CuiabaSerie B
- 27 May 2025Cuiaba 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 11 May 2024Cuiaba 4–2 Vila NovaCopa Verde
- 17 April 2024Vila Nova 2–0 CuiabaCopa Verde
- 22 March 2023Cuiaba 1–1 Vila NovaCopa Verde
Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Cuiaba
Vila Nova
- André Luís8 goals2 assists
- Janderson6 goals7 assists
Cuiaba
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vila Nova carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.42 for Cuiaba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Vila Nova and 1.06 for Cuiaba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vila Nova rate 0.65 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cuiaba rate 0.58 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vila Nova a 12.6% chance of the title and Cuiaba 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vila Nova the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Vila Nova against 1.06 for Cuiaba. Vila Nova's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.38 for Cuiaba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vila Nova at home · Cuiaba away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Vila Nova 30, Cuiaba 30.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Cuiaba have let in 7 there.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Vila Nova have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vila Nova
- at Nautico Recife11 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Novorizontino18 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- at São Bernardo24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Juventude31 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
Cuiaba
- vs Avai11 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Londrina20 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- at America Mineiro24 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs São Bernardo31 Oct · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.