Nautico Recife
vs
Novorizontino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Nautico Recife 1–2 Novorizontino
The model makes it 31% Nautico Recife, 28% draw, 41% Novorizontino — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Nautico Recife 1.34, Novorizontino 1.69.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Nautico Recife are 13th on 42 points from 31 games; Novorizontino are 3rd on 54 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Nautico Recife have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortaleza EC.
- Novorizontino have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Goias.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 June 2026, ended Novorizontino 2–2 Nautico Recife.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
- D3-3Operario-PR15 September 2026
- L1-2away to America Mineiro9 September 2026
Novorizontino
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
- D1-1Cuiaba13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botafogo SP9 September 2026
What these results say
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 42 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
- 14 June 2026Novorizontino 2–2 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 15 October 2022Novorizontino 6–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 2 July 2022Nautico Recife 3–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
- Vinícius8 goals3 assists
Novorizontino
- Robson14 goals5 assists
- Romulo8 goals8 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nautico Recife carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.6 for Novorizontino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Nautico Recife and 1.69 for Novorizontino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nautico Recife rate 0.64 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novorizontino rate 0.79 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nautico Recife a 0% chance of the title and Novorizontino 25.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nautico Recife against 1.69 for Novorizontino. Nautico Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.29 for Novorizontino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nautico Recife at home · Novorizontino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Nautico Recife 31, Novorizontino 31.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Novorizontino have let in 8 there.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nautico Recife
- vs Vila Nova11 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Goias19 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Juventude24 Oct · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Avai31 Oct · Serie Bwin 46%
- vs CRB7 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
Novorizontino
- vs Ponte Preta12 Oct · Serie Bwin 77%
- at Vila Nova18 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- at Atletico Goianiense24 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Operario-PR31 Oct · Serie Bwin 53%
- vs Fortaleza EC7 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.