28 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Arena, Munich
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Bayern München, 18% draw, 16% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 1.52, 5.56 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bayern München at 66% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Upamecanoassist: J. Kimmich
21'
52'
⚽J. Vagnoman
⚽M. Oliseassist: J. Kimmich
55'
⚽J. Vagnoman (OG)
57'
🔁N. Brownout: I. Saibari
61'
62'
Jeff Chabot
62'
🔁T. Tomasout: J. Leweling
63'
🔁D. Pejcinovicout: E. Demirovic
•Michael Olise
64'
68'
Finn Jeltsch
🔁A. Daviesout: J. Stanisic
74'
74'
🔁D. Undavout: L. Stergiou
74'
🔁J. Chabotout: B. El Khannouss
Kim Min-jae
81'
⚽A. Pavlovicassist: I. Saibari
82'
🔁Kim Min-Jaeout: J. Tah
84'
🔁A. Pavlovicout: T. Bischof
84'
🔁H. Kaneout: L. Karl
84'
88'
🔁A. Stillerout: C. Andres
90+3'
Grischa Prömel
⚽L. Diazassist: I. Saibari
90'

Match stats — Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart

59%Possession41%
21Shots11
9On target4
9Corners3
3.93xG0.86

Goals against chances

Bayern München5 from 3.93 xGmore than the chances were worth
VfB Stuttgart1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 27K. LaimerD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 45A. PavlovicM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 11N. BrownM
  • 14L. DiazM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 4J. TahD
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 44J. StanisicD
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 39B. Sapoko NdiayeM
  • 22A. IbrahimovicM
Coach: Vincent Kompany
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 29F. JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 4J. VagnomanM
  • 21G. PromelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 7M. MittelstadtM
  • 17D. PejcinovicF
  • 26D. UndavF
  • 8T. TomasF
Substitutes
  • 33M. FunkG
  • 20L. StergiouD
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 30C. AndresM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 9E. DemirovicF
  • 18J. LewelingF
  • 27B. BouananiF
Coach: Sebastian Hoeness

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bayern München4310142+1210
15VfB Stuttgart410369-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart

  • 28 August 2026Bayern München 5–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 23 May 2026Bayern München 3–0 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
  • 19 April 2026Bayern München 4–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 6 December 2025VfB Stuttgart 0–5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 16 August 2025VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Bayern MünchenSuper Cup
  • 28 February 2025VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

The full Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart record →

Leading scorers: Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München

  • M. Olise4 goals1 assist
  • H. Kane3 goals1 assist

VfB Stuttgart

  • J. Vagnoman2 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.