Athletic Club MG
vs
Sport Recife
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club MG 1-2 Sport Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Athletic Club MG, 28% draw, 36% Sport Recife — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Athletic Club MG 1.48, Sport Recife 1.47.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Model insights: Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club MG at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife
Line-ups
- 1Luan PolliG
- 2Douglas PeléD
- 3JhonatanD
- 4Lucas BeleziD
- 18Pedro OliveiraM
- 14Yago SantosM
- 16João MiguelM
- 10Kauan LindesM
- 23EnzoM
- 17KauanM
- 11MaxF
- 9YarlenF
- 20W. AponzaF
- 8G. CabezasM
- 22Diogo BatistaD
- 5Felipe NegrucciM
- 15JotaM
- 6Marcelo HenriqueD
- 21D. VeraF
- 12TonyG
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 76RaíD
- 6BielM
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 8Juan AlanoM
- 31MarlonM
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 40Matheus MirandaD
- 21BrennoG
- 96EdsonD
- 9PerottiF
- 77DuduF
- 25ClaysonM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 28HabraãoD
Form going into Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife
Athletic Club MG
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC27 September 2026
- D1-1Botafogo SP19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Juventude13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba8 September 2026
Sport Recife
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CRB16 September 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta11 September 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club MG failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Athletic Club MG scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sport Recife had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 42 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife
- 1 October 2026Athletic Club MG 1–2 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 11 June 2026Sport Recife 1–1 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 18 March 2026Sport Recife 1–3 Athletic Club MGCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Athletic Club MG and Sport Recife
Athletic Club MG
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Sport Recife
- Chrystian Barletta11 goals3 assists
- Perotti11 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Athletic Club MG and 1.47 for Sport Recife; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Neto Pessoa 14' (Sport Recife), Kauan Rodrigues da Silva 24' (Athletic Club MG), Carlos María de Pena Bonino 33' (Sport Recife).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club MG the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Athletic Club MG against 1.47 for Sport Recife. Athletic Club MG's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.44 for Sport Recife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.