AC Horsens
vs
Lyngby
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 22% AC Horsens, 21% draw, 57% Lyngby — fair odds of 4.55, 4.76 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: AC Horsens 1.35, Lyngby 2.25.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AC Horsens
- L1-2away to FC Midtjylland2 August 2026
- D1-1FC Nordsjaelland26 July 2026
Lyngby
- L0-2away to Randers FC9 August 2026
- D2-2Aarhus1 August 2026
- L2-3away to FC Copenhagen26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AC Horsens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Lyngby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
AC Horsens carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.74 for Lyngby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): AC Horsens D-L; Lyngby L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for AC Horsens and 2.25 for Lyngby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Horsens rate 0.51 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyngby rate 1.08 and 1.40.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AC Horsens, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyngby the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for AC Horsens against 2.25 for Lyngby. AC Horsens's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.4 for Lyngby.