AS Roma
vs
Cagliari
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AS Roma 1–0 Cagliari
The model makes it 59% AS Roma, 26% draw, 15% Cagliari — fair odds of 1.69, 3.85 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 1.75, Cagliari 0.63.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AS Roma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- AS Roma are 3rd on 14 points from 6 games; Cagliari are 4th on 13 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Como.
- Cagliari are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Juventus.
- Last 6 meetings: AS Roma 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 February 2026, ended AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AS Roma vs Cagliari
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AS Roma vs Cagliari
AS Roma
- D0-0away to Como11 October 2026
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
Cagliari
- D1-1Juventus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
What these results say
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AS Roma
Chance to win the league · 38% today
Cagliari
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Cagliari
- 9 February 2026AS Roma 2–0 CagliariSerie A
- 7 December 2025Cagliari 1–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 16 March 2025AS Roma 1–0 CagliariSerie A
- 18 August 2024Cagliari 0–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 5 February 2024AS Roma 4–0 CagliariSerie A
- 8 October 2023Cagliari 1–4 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Cagliari
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen60
- M. Soulé21
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.34 against 6.9 for Cagliari. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for AS Roma and 0.63 for Cagliari. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.55 in attack and 0.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cagliari rate 0.87 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AS Roma a 37.6% chance of the title and Cagliari 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.63 for Cagliari. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.81 for Cagliari.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AS Roma at home · Cagliari away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AS RomaCagliari
AS Roma are 2nd after 6 Serie A matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Cagliari are 4th after 6 (between 3rd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AS Roma 6, Cagliari 6.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cagliari have let in 1 there.
Cagliari score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); AS Roma have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AS Roma
- at Udinese31 Oct · Serie Awin 59%
Cagliari
- at Lazio1 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Frosinone7 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at Como21 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.