Antalyaspor
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Antalyaspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
The model makes it 36% Antalyaspor, 29% draw, 35% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.28, Fatih Karagümrük 1.24.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Antalyaspor's rating is built from 14 TFF 1. Lig matches and Fatih Karagümrük's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Antalyaspor are 8th on 20 points from 14 games; Fatih Karagümrük are 9th on 19 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Antalyaspor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Bursaspor.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Bandırmaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Antalyaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Has the model earned this number?
Antalyaspor at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Antalyaspor
1. Lig
- D1-1Bursaspor6 November 2026
- D1-1away to Iğdır FK1 November 2026
- L1-2Bodrum FK25 October 2026
- W2-0away to İstanbulspor18 October 2026
- L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig
- W4-0away to Bandırmaspor8 November 2026
- L0-1Pendikspor31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sarıyer24 October 2026
- L1-2Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026
What these results say
- Antalyaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 20 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
- 7 February 2026Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 30 August 2025Antalyaspor 1–2 Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
- 29 April 2024Fatih Karagümrük 4–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 9 December 2023Antalyaspor 2–1 Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
- 29 April 2023Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 16 December 2022Antalyaspor 2–3 Fatih KaragümrükFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek42
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antalyaspor a 0.1% chance of the title and Fatih Karagümrük 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antalyaspor the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Antalyaspor against 1.24 for Fatih Karagümrük. Antalyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük.
How the model reaches 36% for Antalyaspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Antalyaspor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Antalyaspor's ratings take away 3 points and Fatih Karagümrük's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Antalyaspor's ratings40%−3
- Fatih Karagümrük's ratings36%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Antalyaspor at home · Fatih Karagümrük away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Antalyaspor 14, Fatih Karagümrük 14.
Antalyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Fatih Karagümrük have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Antalyaspor
- at Muğlaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Manisa F.K.13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Batman Petrolspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 25%
- at Keçiörengücü10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 22%
Fatih Karagümrük
- vs Vanspor FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 55%
- at Sivasspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 40%
- vs Bodrum FK20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 41%
- vs Iğdır FK10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.