Fenerbahçe
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 2–0 Erzurumspor FK
The model makes it 75% Fenerbahçe, 16% draw, 9% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.83, Erzurumspor FK 0.70.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Fenerbahçe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Fenerbahçe's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Erzurumspor FK's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Fenerbahçe are 6th on 19 points from 11 games; Erzurumspor FK are 12th on 14 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Fenerbahçe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Çorum FK.
- Erzurumspor FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Rizespor.
- Last 6 meetings: Fenerbahçe 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 February 2026, ended Fenerbahçe 3–1 Erzurumspor FK.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
Fenerbahçe at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig
- W5-0away to Çorum FK8 November 2026
- L1-2Göztepe31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Galatasaray26 October 2026
- W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Rizespor8 November 2026
- L1-3Çorum FK31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Gaziantep FK24 October 2026
- W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had three goals or more.
- Erzurumspor FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 19 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK
- 5 February 2026Fenerbahçe 3–1 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 5 February 2025Fenerbahçe 5–0 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 3 May 2021Fenerbahçe 3–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 11 January 2021Erzurumspor FK 0–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 20 May 2019Erzurumspor FK 0–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 December 2018Fenerbahçe 2–2 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Erzurumspor FK
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood62
- İ. Kahveci53
Erzurumspor FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fenerbahçe a 10.6% chance of the title and Erzurumspor FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 0.70 for Erzurumspor FK. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.26 for Erzurumspor FK.
How the model reaches 75% for Fenerbahçe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Fenerbahçe to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Fenerbahçe's ratings add 18 points and Erzurumspor FK's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 75%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Fenerbahçe's ratings61%+18
- Erzurumspor FK's ratings75%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fenerbahçe at home · Erzurumspor FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FenerbahçeErzurumspor FK
Fenerbahçe are 6th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Erzurumspor FK are 12th after 11 (between 8th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Fenerbahçe 11, Erzurumspor FK 11.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Erzurumspor FK have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fenerbahçe
- at Başakşehir5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 43%
- at Lask Linz9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 53%
- vs Trabzonspor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 49%
Erzurumspor FK
- vs Kocaelispor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Kasımpaşa12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 30%
- at Başakşehir19 Dec · Süper Ligwin 16%
- vs Trabzonspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.