Sabadell
vs
FC Andorra
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sabadell 2–1 FC Andorra
The model makes it 46% Sabadell, 27% draw, 27% FC Andorra — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sabadell 1.87, FC Andorra 1.14.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sabadell vs FC Andorra
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sabadell wins, grey are draws, red are FC Andorra wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 46% here. Across 2687 settled matches, 1231 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sabadell vs FC Andorra
Sabadell
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sporting Gijon17 August 2026
FC Andorra
- L1-3Sporting Gijon19 September 2026
- L1-3Real Sociedad II12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Valladolid5 September 2026
- L0-1Eibar30 August 2026
- L2-4away to Celta de Vigo II24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sabadell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 20 | FC Andorra | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Sabadell and FC Andorra
Sabadell
- N. Gioacchini3 goals
FC Andorra
- Hugo López2 goals
- Nacho Quintana2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sabadell carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.39 for FC Andorra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Sabadell and 1.14 for FC Andorra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabadell rate 0.69 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Andorra rate 0.67 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sabadell a 1.5% chance of the title and FC Andorra 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1256 correct results out of 2687 settled predictions (47%), with 254 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sabadell against 1.14 for FC Andorra. Sabadell's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.67 for FC Andorra.