Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Asyut Petrol Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1-0 Asyut Petrol.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 28% draw, 31% Asyut Petrol — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ittihad Alexandria at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Asyut Petrol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. Soliman
- 24M. AwadD
- 7M. Mostafa
- 5M. IbrahimD
- 30K. MosaadD
- 23S. IsaacM
- 25M. EmadM
- 35P. PhiriM
- 8M. TonyM
- 80J. ArumalaM
- 10H. HassanF
- 16A. El ArabiG
- 4I. AbdellahD
- 12M. SherifD
- 14M. FakhriM
- 44K. SemakulaD
- 37A. AtefM
- 11Y. WahidF
- 18J. EbukaF
- 22N. AlaaM
- 1A. YoussefG
- 30A. MedhatD
- 20A. Shokry
- 24M. Abdel AleimD
- 7A. YounesM
- 19I. AbbasM
- 26A. El KhamisiM
- 13I. AshrafM
- 12Z. Tarek
- 35C. C. BodneF
- 22M. TayebF
- 25A. Ahmed
- 5M. AlaaD
- 34K. AbdelaalD
- 29A. MorganD
- 17A. HamzaM
- 31A. SalamM
- 15A. Khaled
- 9M. EidF
- 11M. Abdel HamidF
Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Asyut Petrol
Al Ittihad Alexandria
Premier League
- W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
Asyut Petrol
Premier League
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and Asyut Petrol
Al Ittihad Alexandria
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Hassan40
Asyut Petrol
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Ittihad Alexandria beat Asyut Petrol 1–0. The model had made a win for Al Ittihad Alexandria its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: N. Alaa 74' for Al Ittihad Alexandria. On expected goals it finished 0.48–0.67.
How the call on Al Ittihad Alexandria v Asyut Petrol has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Al Ittihad Alexandria's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria win41%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Asyut Petrol win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.