Olympic El Qanah vs El Geish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Olympic El Qanah 1-1 El Geish.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Olympic El Qanah, 28% draw, 30% El Geish — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympic El Qanah at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Olympic El Qanah vs El Geish
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16M. ShaabanG
- 30O. FathyD
- 5I. SamyD
- 2M. MahdyD
- 6M. RadyD
- 20H. IbrahimM
- 15M. SamyM
- 18M. WayoM
- 25M. HamadaM
- 10M. Hany
- 9H. A. Sattar
- 1M. MahmoudG
- 19M. El Shebiny
- 3A. ElfilD
- 98H. El ShazlyD
- 8M. HarshaM
- 33M. SadekM
- 14M. El Kout
- 11M. HamdiF
- 22M. AntarF
- 18E. El SayedG
- 8A. ZolaD
- 6K. SotohiD
- 4M. CamachoD
- 19H. El GabryD
- 30M. AtefM
- 32Y. MostafaM
- 22M. El KhawagaM
- 11K. Tarek
- 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
- 12I. Mohareb
- 77M. Magdy
- 24El Zoughbi
- 3A. TarekD
- 15M. ShabanaD
- 21Khaled Ramadan
- 13K. KomlaviF
- 9F. HatemF
- 10M. HanyF
- 25A. TarekM
Form going into Olympic El Qanah vs El Geish
Olympic El Qanah
Premier League
- D0-0away to Wadi Degla1 September 2026
El Geish
Premier League
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Olympic El Qanah and El Geish
Olympic El Qanah
GoalsAssists
- M. Wayo30
- Hazem Abou Sena21
El Geish
GoalsAssists
- Islam Mohareb21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Olympic El Qanah and El Geish drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Olympic El Qanah at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Wayo 45' for Olympic El Qanah, I. Mohareb 67' for El Geish. On expected goals it finished 0.54–1.18.
How the call on Olympic El Qanah v El Geish has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Olympic El Qanah win42%▲ +1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- El Geish win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.