Al-Fateh
vs
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
The model makes it 38% Al-Fateh, 30% draw, 32% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.40, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.20.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Fateh are 15th on 3 points from 7 games; Al Khaleej Saihat are 13th on 5 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Al-Fateh have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to NEOM.
- Al Khaleej Saihat have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al-Nassr.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Fateh at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Fateh
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Faisaly FC26 August 2026
Al Khaleej Saihat
- D1-1Al-Nassr12 September 2026
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
- L1-5Al-Hilal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Abha25 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
- 24 April 2026Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 29 December 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 0–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 12 April 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 1–5 Al-FatehPro League
- 9 November 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 9 March 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 15 September 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 1–3 Al-FatehPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Fateh carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.37 for Al Khaleej Saihat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.20 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Fateh rate 0.56 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Khaleej Saihat rate 0.59 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Khaleej Saihat, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Fateh the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Fateh against 1.20 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Al-Fateh's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.53 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Fateh at home · Al Khaleej Saihat away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Fateh 7, Al Khaleej Saihat 7.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Al Khaleej Saihat have let in 6 there.
Al Khaleej Saihat score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Al-Fateh have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Fateh
- vs Al Shabab22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al-Hilal31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- vs Al Riyadh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
Al Khaleej Saihat
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs Al-Hazm29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- at Al Kholood5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.