Abha
vs
Al Kholood
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Abha 1–2 Al Kholood
The model makes it 33% Abha, 29% draw, 38% Al Kholood — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Abha 1.36, Al Kholood 1.55.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Abha are bottom on 2 points from 7 games; Al Kholood are 7th on 12 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Abha have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Al Diriyah.
- Al Kholood have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al Riyadh.
- Last 2 meetings: Al Kholood 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 February 2018, ended Abha 0–0 Al Kholood.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Abha vs Al Kholood
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Kholood at 38% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Abha vs Al Kholood
Abha
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat25 August 2026
Al Kholood
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al Diriyah26 August 2026
What these results say
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al Kholood.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Abha vs Al Kholood
- 23 February 2018Abha 0–0 Al KholoodDivision 2
- 8 December 2017Al Kholood 2–0 AbhaDivision 2
Leading scorers: Abha and Al Kholood
Abha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Al Kholood
- Iker Kortajarena4 goals1 assist
- J. Domingues3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Abha carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.48 for Al Kholood. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Abha and 1.55 for Al Kholood. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Abha rate 0.56 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Kholood rate 0.70 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Kholood the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Abha against 1.55 for Al Kholood. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.48 for Al Kholood.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Abha at home · Al Kholood away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Abha 7, Al Kholood 7.
Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al Kholood have let in 3 there.
Al Kholood score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Abha have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Abha
- at NEOM24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al-Ittihad30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 26%
- vs Al Shabab5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 35%
Al Kholood
- vs Al-Ettifaq24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- at Al-Nassr29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 18%
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.