Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Hilal 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al-Hilal, 28% draw, 28% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37BonoG
- 2M. MahzariD
- 78A. LajamiD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 19T. HernandezD
- 8R. NevesM
- 6N. Al DawsariM
- 27S. MandashM
- 22S. Milinkovic-SavicM
- 38C. SummervilleM
- 75M. MeiteF
- 33M. Al OwaisG
- 87H. TambaktiD
- 24M. Al HarbiD
- 55M. Al DawoodD
- 28M. KannoM
- 77N. Al HabashiD
- 18M. Al HawsawiM
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 72S. DahalF
- 16E. MendyG
- 5M. SulaimanD
- 28M. DemiralD
- 3IbanezD
- 2Z. Al HawsawiD
- 30Z. Al JohaniM
- 6V. AtanganaM
- 7TrincaoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 1A. Al SanbiG
- 31S. BalobaidD
- 46R. HamidouD
- 66N. MasoudM
- 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
- 11M. Al MutairiM
- 29M. AbdulrahmanD
- 9F. Al BuraikanF
- 21A. RadifF
Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Hilal
No earlier matches on record this season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Hilal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 27 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Martinelli60
- S. Milinković-Savić52
- O. Watkins45
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Hilal beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Milinkovic-Savic 9' for Al-Hilal, C. Summerville 23' for Al-Hilal, O. Watkins 86' for Al-Hilal. Sent off: Merih Demiral (Al-Ahli Jeddah) 45+7'. On expected goals it finished 2.16–1.35.