Al-Gharafa
vs
Al-Rayyan SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al-Rayyan SC
The model makes it 19% Al-Gharafa, 22% draw, 59% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.04, Al-Rayyan SC 2.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Rayyan SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 10th on 4 points from 5 games; Al-Rayyan SC are top on 13 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al-Gharafa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al Wakrah.
- Al-Rayyan SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Qatar SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Gharafa 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 February 2026, ended Al-Gharafa 3–2 Al-Rayyan SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Rayyan SC at 59% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Gharafa
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
- L1-3Al Shamal27 August 2026
- W2-1Al Shahaniya21 August 2026
Al-Rayyan SC
- W3-0away to Qatar SC9 October 2026
- W3-0Al Ahli Doha11 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Duhail SC5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al Wakrah27 August 2026
- W1-0Lusail City20 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Gharafa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Rayyan SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Rayyan SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Rayyan SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Rayyan SC
- 26 February 2026Al-Gharafa 3–2 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 25 September 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 24 May 2025Al-Rayyan SC 1–2 Al-GharafaEmir Cup
- 29 January 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–2 Al-GharafaStars League
- 23 August 2024Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 1 May 2024Al-Rayyan SC 2–1 Al-GharafaQatar Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- F. Magri20
- Y. Brahimi20
Al-Rayyan SC
GoalsAssists
- Róger Guedes50
- Gabriel Pereira21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Gharafa carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.66 for Al-Rayyan SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Al-Gharafa and 2.25 for Al-Rayyan SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Gharafa rate 0.54 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Rayyan SC rate 0.73 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Rayyan SC the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 2.25 for Al-Rayyan SC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.08 for Al-Rayyan SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Gharafa at home · Al-Rayyan SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Gharafa 5, Al-Rayyan SC 5.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al-Rayyan SC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- vs Al Ahli Doha22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 30%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 5%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
- at Qatar SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Duhail SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 22%
Al-Rayyan SC
- vs Al-Sailiya22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 72%
- at Al-Arabi SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 47%
- vs Al Sadd20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 45%
- at Al Shahaniya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 55%
- at Al Shamal3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.