Al Ahli Doha
vs
Al Wakrah
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al Wakrah
The model makes it 37% Al Ahli Doha, 27% draw, 36% Al Wakrah — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Ahli Doha 1.81, Al Wakrah 1.75.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Al Ahli Doha and Al Wakrah are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Ahli Doha are 8th on 4 points from 4 games; Al Wakrah are 11th on 2 points from 4 games — Stars League.
- Al Ahli Doha have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Al-Rayyan SC.
- Al Wakrah have not won in their last 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al Shamal.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Al Wakrah 3–2 Al Ahli Doha.
All Qatar Stars League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ahli Doha at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah
Al Ahli Doha
- L0-3away to Al-Rayyan SC11 September 2026
- W1-0Qatar SC3 September 2026
- D3-3Lusail City28 August 2026
- L1-3away to Al Sadd22 August 2026
Al Wakrah
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
- L1-2Al-Rayyan SC27 August 2026
- D2-2Qatar SC20 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Ahli Doha failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Ahli Doha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Ahli Doha conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Wakrah did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Wakrah conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Wakrah scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Ahli Doha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Al Wakrah | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah
- 6 February 2026Al Wakrah 3–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 11 November 2025Al Ahli Doha 2–2 Al WakrahQSL Cup
- 13 September 2025Al Ahli Doha 5–3 Al WakrahStars League
- 11 January 2025Al Ahli Doha 6–3 Al WakrahStars League
- 15 November 2024Al Wakrah 3–1 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
- 11 August 2024Al Wakrah 2–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Ahli Doha carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.31 for Al Wakrah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Al Ahli Doha and 1.75 for Al Wakrah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Ahli Doha rate 0.59 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Wakrah rate 0.58 and 1.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ahli Doha the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al Ahli Doha against 1.75 for Al Wakrah. Al Ahli Doha's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.72 for Al Wakrah.
Season stats
Al Ahli Doha at home · Al Wakrah away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Ahli Doha 4, Al Wakrah 4.
Al Ahli Doha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Al Wakrah have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Ahli Doha
- at Al-Gharafa22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al Shahaniya6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Arabi SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al Shamal27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 32%
Al Wakrah
- vs Al-Arabi SC22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 33%
- at Al-Duhail SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 28%
- at Al Shahaniya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Sailiya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.