AFC Wimbledon
vs
Mansfield Town
League One prediction
Our model says: AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Mansfield Town
The model makes it 32% AFC Wimbledon, 31% draw, 37% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.09, Mansfield Town 1.28.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- AFC Wimbledon are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Mansfield Town are 17th on 8 points from 7 games — League One.
- AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cambridge United.
- Mansfield Town are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Burton Albion.
- Last 6 meetings: Mansfield Town 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Mansfield Town 2–2 AFC Wimbledon.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mansfield Town at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
AFC Wimbledon
- D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
- L1-4away to Burton Albion2 September 2026
Mansfield Town
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
- D0-0Huddersfield12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bradford5 September 2026
- L0-5away to Reading2 September 2026
- W5-2Luton30 August 2026
What these results say
- AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AFC Wimbledon had two goals or fewer.
- Mansfield Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mansfield Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
- 28 February 2026Mansfield Town 2–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 13 December 2025AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 27 January 2024AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 7 October 2023Mansfield Town 0–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
- 4 March 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 16 August 2022Mansfield Town 5–2 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town
AFC Wimbledon
- J. Stockley3 goals1 assist
Mansfield Town
No player in League One's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AFC Wimbledon carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.29 for Mansfield Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.28 for Mansfield Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AFC Wimbledon rate 0.41 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mansfield Town rate 0.57 and 1.74.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AFC Wimbledon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AFC Wimbledon a 0% chance of the title and Mansfield Town 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon against 1.28 for Mansfield Town. AFC Wimbledon's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.74 for Mansfield Town.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AFC Wimbledon at home · Mansfield Town away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: AFC Wimbledon 8, Mansfield Town 7.
Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); AFC Wimbledon have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AFC Wimbledon
- vs Wycombe24 Oct · League Onewin 33%
- at Stockport County31 Oct · League Onewin 22%
Mansfield Town
- at Blackpool24 Oct · League Onewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.