Bromley
vs
Leicester
League One prediction
Our model says: Bromley 1–2 Leicester
The model makes it 24% Bromley, 26% draw, 50% Leicester — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Bromley 1.13, Leicester 2.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Bromley are 19th on 8 points from 7 games; Leicester are 14th on 9 points from 7 games — League One.
- Bromley have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Huddersfield.
- Leicester have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barnsley.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bromley vs Leicester
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leicester at 50% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bromley vs Leicester
Bromley
- W2-1Huddersfield19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Blackpool12 September 2026
- L0-2AFC Wimbledon7 September 2026
- L0-5Leyton Orient1 September 2026
- L2-7away to Sheffield Wednesday29 August 2026
Leicester
- D1-1away to Barnsley19 September 2026
- W4-3away to Stockport County12 September 2026
- L0-4Oxford United5 September 2026
- W2-0Plymouth1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Milton Keynes Dons29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bromley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bromley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bromley had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Bromley and Leicester
Bromley
- V. Adeboyejo4 goals
Leicester
No player in League One's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bromley carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.44 for Leicester. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Bromley and 2.19 for Leicester. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bromley rate 0.50 in attack and 2.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leicester rate 0.66 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bromley a 0% chance of the title and Leicester 11.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bromley against 2.19 for Leicester. Bromley's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.49 for Leicester.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bromley at home · Leicester away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Bromley 7, Leicester 7.
Leicester score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Bromley have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bromley
- vs Peterborough24 Oct · League Onewin 35%
Leicester
- at Luton24 Oct · League Onewin 37%
- vs Wigan27 Oct · League Onewin 51%
- vs Stevenage31 Oct · League Onewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.