AEK Athens FC
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 48% AEK Athens FC, 28% draw, 24% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.43, Aris Thessalonikis 0.95.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 11 January 2026Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 23 November 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 9 March 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 3 December 2024Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 AEK Athens FCCup
- 30 November 2024AEK Athens FC 4–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 30 October 2024AEK Athens FC 1–0 Aris ThessalonikisCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.69 for Aris Thessalonikis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): AEK Athens FC D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.95 for Aris Thessalonikis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 0.75 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.72 and 1.01.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.95 for Aris Thessalonikis. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 0.75/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.01 for Aris Thessalonikis.