Aalesund vs Viking Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Aalesund, 22% draw, 47% Viking — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Viking
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 4Simen HaramD
- 22Emil EngqvistD
- 3Ólafur GuðmundssonD
- 2Marius AndresenM
- 21Mathias ChristensenM
- 6Hakon Butli HammerM
- 18Elias Kristoffersen HagenM
- 14Uba CharlesM
- 39Kristian LonebuF
- 15Endre Hjertager OsenbrochF
- 11Davíð Snær JóhannssonM
- 7Kristoffer NessøM
- 8Henrik MellandM
- 17Elias Heggland MyrlidF
- 26Tor Erik LarsenG
- 25Ulrik SyversenD
- 16Jakob Nyland ÖrsahlD
- 45Philip Sandvik AuklandD
- 20Ivan DjantouF
- 30Ľubomír BelkoG
- 18Sondre Flem BjørsholD
- 6Gianni StensnessD
- 21Anders BaertelsenD
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 8Joe BellM
- 7Kristoffer AskildsenM
- 23Niklas Kemp FuglestadM
- 26Simen Kvia-EgeskogM
- 17Edvin AustbøM
- 20Peter ChristiansenF
- 2Herman Johan HaugenD
- 29Tobias MoiM
- 16Ruben AlteM
- 19Amin CosicF
- 28Kristoffer HaugenD
- 1Arild ØstbøG
- 3Viljar VevatneD
- 33Jakob Segadal HansenM
- 15Ola VistedM
Form going into Aalesund vs Viking
Aalesund
No earlier matches on record this season.
Viking
- W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
- W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 18 |
| 2 | Viking | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Viking
- 26 July 2026Aalesund 1–1 VikingEliteserien
- 18 March 2026Viking 1–2 AalesundNM Cupen
- 25 June 2025Aalesund 0–1 VikingNM Cupen
- 26 November 2023Aalesund 0–4 VikingEliteserien
- 24 July 2023Viking 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 2 October 2022Aalesund 2–1 VikingEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Viking
Aalesund
- M. Christensen7 goals2 assists
Viking
- P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
- S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
- Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.