1. FC Köln
vs
Union Berlin
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Köln 1–0 Union Berlin
The model makes it 47% 1. FC Köln, 27% draw, 26% Union Berlin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.66, Union Berlin 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- 1. FC Köln are 10th on 7 points from 5 games; Union Berlin are 16th on 4 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Köln have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to SV Elversberg.
- Last 6 meetings: Union Berlin 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Köln.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- 1. FC Köln50%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Union Berlin25%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Köln at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
- W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
- D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
- L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
- W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026
Union Berlin
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Köln scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for 1. FC Köln.
- Union Berlin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union Berlin had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin
- 2 May 2026Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 20 December 20251. FC Köln 0–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 11 May 20241. FC Köln 3–2 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 20 December 2023Union Berlin 2–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 4 March 2023Union Berlin 0–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 11 September 20221. FC Köln 0–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Köln carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.64 for Union Berlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.10 for Union Berlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Köln rate 0.85 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Berlin rate 0.78 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Köln the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 1.10 for Union Berlin. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.2 for Union Berlin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Köln at home · Union Berlin away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Köln 5, Union Berlin 5.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Köln
- at Union Berlin1 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen8 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
- at Bayern München20 Nov · Bundesligawin 7%
- vs SV Elversberg28 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
Union Berlin
- vs 1. FC Köln1 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%
- at SC Freiburg8 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
- vs RB Leipzig21 Nov · Bundesligawin 18%
- at FSV Mainz 0528 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.