Championship (Scotland)

1. Stenhousemuir — 22 points from 8 played (7 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost), 12 scored, 2 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
2. Raith Rovers — 14 points from 8 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 11 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: L W W D L.
3. Livingston — 13 points from 8 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 12 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: L L W D W.
4. Partick — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 5 scored, 2 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D D W L D.
5. Dunfermline — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 6 scored, 4 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L W D W W.
6. Arbroath — 11 points from 8 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 6 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: W D L L W.
7. Inverness CT — 10 points from 8 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 9 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L L W D W.
8. Ayr Utd — 8 points from 8 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 7 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
9. Queen's Park — 4 points from 8 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 4 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: D W L L L.
10. Morton — 1 points from 8 played (0 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 4 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: D L L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-03, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 9 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Stenhousemuir — chance of finishing top down 2.6, to 61%.
• Partick — chance of finishing top up 0.7, to 12.7%.
• Dunfermline — chance of finishing top up 0.6, to 11.4%.
• Arbroath — chance of finishing top up 0.5, to 5.6%; bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 1.5%.
• Livingston — chance of finishing top up 0.5, to 4.8%.

Season projection

Every one of the 141 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-03, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Stenhousemuir — projected to finish on 74.4 points, from 22 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 61% (down 2.6), finishes top four 96.5%, bottom three 0%.
2. Partick — projected to finish on 62.2 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 12.7% (up 0.7), finishes top four 68.1%, bottom three 1.3%.
3. Dunfermline — projected to finish on 61.9 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.4% (up 0.6), finishes top four 67.3%, bottom three 0.7%.
4. Arbroath — projected to finish on 59.3 points, from 11 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.6% (up 0.5), finishes top four 56.5%, bottom three 1.5%.
5. Livingston — projected to finish on 58.5 points, from 13 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.8% (up 0.5), finishes top four 54.8%, bottom three 2.2%.
6. Raith Rovers — projected to finish on 55.9 points, from 14 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.1% (up 0.2), finishes top four 41.4%, bottom three 3.4%.
7. Inverness CT — projected to finish on 47.9 points, from 10 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4% (up 0.1), finishes top four 13.9%, bottom three 16.2%.
8. Ayr Utd — projected to finish on 35.1 points, from 8 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 1.5%, bottom three 79.8%.
9. Queen's Park — projected to finish on 26 points, from 4 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 95.7%.
10. Morton — projected to finish on 20 points, from 1 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 99.2%.