Real Betis
vs
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Betis 2–0 Rayo Vallecano
The model makes it 58% Real Betis, 24% draw, 18% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Real Betis 2.09, Rayo Vallecano 0.95.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
Edge to Real Betis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Real Betis's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Rayo Vallecano's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Real Betis are 4th on 26 points from 12 games; Rayo Vallecano are 14th on 12 points from 11 games — La Liga.
- Real Betis are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Elche.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Real Sociedad.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Real Betis 1–1 Rayo Vallecano.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano
Has the model earned this number?
Real Betis at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
La Liga
- W2-0away to Elche8 November 2026
- W2-1Malaga31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Celta Vigo25 October 2026
- L2-5Barcelona17 October 2026
- W5-2Osasuna11 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- L0-1away to Real Sociedad8 November 2026
- W3-0Celta Vigo31 October 2026
- L0-3Elche24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Betis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Betis
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
Rayo Vallecano
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Betis
Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Real Betis on 21 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Real Betis | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Feb 2026
La LigaReal Betis 1–1 Rayo Vallecano - 15 Dec 2025
La LigaRayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Betis - 15 May 2025
La LigaRayo Vallecano 2–2 Real Betis - 22 Dec 2024
La LigaReal Betis 1–1 Rayo Vallecano - 17 Mar 2024
La LigaRayo Vallecano 2–0 Real Betis - 2 Sep 2023
La LigaReal Betis 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Real Betis' attack rates 40% above Rayo Vallecano's, and Real Betis concede 17% fewer than Rayo Vallecano. That gives Real Betis the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Real Betis | 1.27 | 0.85 |
Leading scorers: Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Betis a 0.9% chance of the title and Rayo Vallecano 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Real Betis against 0.95 for Rayo Vallecano. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.27/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.02 for Rayo Vallecano.
How the model reaches 58% for Real Betis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Betis to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Real Betis's ratings add 7 points and Rayo Vallecano's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Real Betis's ratings51%+7
- Rayo Vallecano's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Betis at home · Rayo Vallecano away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Real BetisRayo Vallecano
Real Betis are 4th after 12 La Liga matches (between 2nd and 5th so far); Rayo Vallecano are 14th after 11 (between 8th and 19th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Betis 12, Rayo Vallecano 11.
Real Betis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Rayo Vallecano have let in 2 there.
Rayo Vallecano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Real Betis have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Betis
- at Atletico Madrid6 Dec · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Como9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- vs Racing Santander13 Dec · La Ligawin 72%
Rayo Vallecano
- vs Levante6 Dec · La Ligawin 43%
- at Villarreal13 Dec · La Ligawin 20%
- vs Malaga20 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
- vs Atletico Madrid3 Jan · La Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.