Nice
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Nice 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
The model makes it 19% Nice, 24% draw, 57% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Nice 1.01, Paris Saint Germain 2.10.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Paris Saint Germain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Nice's rating is built from 46 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Paris Saint Germain's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Nice are 6th on 17 points from 10 games; Paris Saint Germain are top on 23 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Nice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Angers.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estac Troyes.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Nice 0–4 Paris Saint Germain.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
Paris Saint Germain at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nice vs Paris Saint Germain
Nice
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to Angers8 November 2026
- W5-2Rennes30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Stade Brestois 2923 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lyon18 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1
- W1-0Estac Troyes7 November 2026
- W5-1away to Le Havre30 October 2026
- W2-0Lyon26 October 2026
- W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
What these results say
- Nice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nice won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain won every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Paris Saint Germain
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 75% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain
Nice and Paris Saint Germain have met 6 times in the records we hold, Paris Saint Germain has won 4 of them to Nice's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Paris Saint Germain won the last one 4–0 on 21 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Nice 0–4 Paris Saint Germain - 1 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Nice - 25 Apr 2025
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 1–3 Nice - 6 Oct 2024
Ligue 1Nice 1–1 Paris Saint Germain - 15 May 2024
Ligue 1Nice 1–2 Paris Saint Germain - 13 Mar 2024
Coupe de FranceParis Saint Germain 3–1 Nice
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Paris Saint Germain's attack rates 66% above Nice's, and Paris Saint Germain concede 35% fewer than Nice. That gives Paris Saint Germain the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.48 | 0.67 |
Leading scorers: Nice and Paris Saint Germain
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi62
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nice a 0.2% chance of the title and Paris Saint Germain 74.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Nice v Paris Saint Germain has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 18% / 23% / 59% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 19% / 24% / 57%: the biggest move is Paris Saint Germain's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Nice win19%▲ +1
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Paris Saint Germain win57%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nice against 2.10 for Paris Saint Germain. Nice's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.67 for Paris Saint Germain.
How the model reaches 57% for Paris Saint Germain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris Saint Germain to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Nice's ratings add 12 points and Paris Saint Germain's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Nice's ratings43%+12
- Paris Saint Germain's ratings57%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Nice at home · Paris Saint Germain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NiceParis Saint Germain
Nice are 6th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 5th and 17th so far); Paris Saint Germain are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Nice 10, Paris Saint Germain 10.
Paris Saint Germain score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Nice have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nice
- vs Estac Troyes28 Nov · Ligue 1win 52%
- at Marseille6 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Lens12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Monaco2 Jan · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs Le Havre16 Jan · Ligue 1win 54%
Paris Saint Germain
- vs AS Roma25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 59%
- vs Lorient28 Nov · Ligue 1win 65%
- at Toulouse4 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- at Aston Villa8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 42%
- vs Paris FC12 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.