West Brom
vs
Millwall
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Brom 1–0 Millwall
The model makes it 38% West Brom, 30% draw, 32% Millwall — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: West Brom 1.24, Millwall 1.09.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 956 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. West Brom's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Millwall's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- West Brom are 5th on 20 points from 11 games; Millwall are 12th on 15 points from 11 games — Championship.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Blackburn.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Lincoln.
- Last 6 meetings: Millwall 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended West Brom 0–0 Millwall.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: West Brom vs Millwall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into West Brom vs Millwall
West Brom
Championship
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham13 October 2026
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
Millwall
Championship
- D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026
- L0-1Swansea13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
What these results say
- West Brom conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs West Brom
Millwall and West Brom have met 6 times in the records we hold, Millwall has won 1 of them to West Brom's 0, with 5 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at West Brom on 10 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| West Brom | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 7 goals, an average of 1.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 Apr 2026
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–0 Millwall - 4 Oct 2025
ChampionshipMillwall 3–0 West Brom - 15 Feb 2025
ChampionshipMillwall 1–1 West Brom - 5 Oct 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–0 Millwall - 29 Mar 2024
ChampionshipMillwall 1–1 West Brom - 23 Sep 2023
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–0 Millwall
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: West Brom and Millwall
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price42
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
West Brom carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.61 for Millwall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for West Brom and 1.09 for Millwall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Brom rate 0.65 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Millwall rate 0.78 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Brom a 1% chance of the title and Millwall 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for West Brom against 1.09 for Millwall. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.26 for Millwall.
How the model reaches 38% for West Brom to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Brom to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, West Brom's ratings take away 15 points and Millwall's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- West Brom's ratings27%−15
- Millwall's ratings38%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
West Brom at home · Millwall away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
West BromMillwall
West Brom are 5th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Millwall are 12th after 11 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: West Brom 11, Millwall 11.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); West Brom have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
West Brom
- at Swansea21 Nov · Championshipwin 25%
- at Bolton25 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
Millwall
- vs QPR21 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
- at Stoke City25 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.