Watford
vs
Middlesbrough
Championship prediction
Our model says: Watford 0–1 Middlesbrough
The model makes it 22% Watford, 26% draw, 52% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Watford 1.02, Middlesbrough 1.83.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
One-sided: Middlesbrough are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Watford's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Middlesbrough's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Watford are 20th on 11 points from 11 games; Middlesbrough are top on 25 points from 12 games — Championship.
- Watford have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Charlton.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-1 win away to Bolton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Watford vs Middlesbrough
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 52% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Watford vs Middlesbrough
Watford
Championship
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
- L1-5away to Cardiff13 October 2026
- L0-4Burnley10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
Middlesbrough
Championship
- W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Stoke City13 October 2026
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
What these results say
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Watford conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Watford
Middlesbrough and Watford have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Middlesbrough won the last one 5–1 on 25 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 |
| Watford | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Apr 2026
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 5–1 Watford - 1 Nov 2025
ChampionshipWatford 3–0 Middlesbrough - 15 Feb 2025
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 0–1 Watford - 5 Oct 2024
ChampionshipWatford 2–1 Middlesbrough - 4 May 2024
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 3–1 Watford - 30 Sep 2023
ChampionshipWatford 2–3 Middlesbrough
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 0.96 | 1.21 |
| Watford | 0.56 | 1.59 |
Leading scorers: Watford and Middlesbrough
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear110
- A. Cozier-Duberry34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Watford carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.74 for Middlesbrough. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Watford and 1.83 for Middlesbrough. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Watford rate 0.56 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Middlesbrough rate 0.96 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Watford a 0% chance of the title and Middlesbrough 18.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Watford against 1.83 for Middlesbrough. Watford's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.21 for Middlesbrough.
How the model reaches 52% for Middlesbrough to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Middlesbrough to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Watford's ratings add 27 points and Middlesbrough's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Watford's ratings57%+27
- Middlesbrough's ratings52%−5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Watford at home · Middlesbrough away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WatfordMiddlesbrough
Watford are 20th after 11 Championship matches (between 6th and 22nd so far); Middlesbrough are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Watford 11, Middlesbrough 12.
Middlesbrough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Watford have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Watford
- at Sheffield Utd21 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Blackburn25 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
Middlesbrough
- vs Bristol City21 Nov · Championshipwin 57%
- vs Swansea24 Nov · Championshipwin 45%
- at Southampton27 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.