Lazio
vs
Lecce
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lazio 1–0 Lecce
The model makes it 60% Lazio, 24% draw, 16% Lecce — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Lazio 1.91, Lecce 0.74.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Lazio are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lazio's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Lecce's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Lazio are top on 29 points from 11 games; Lecce are 14th on 10 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Napoli.
- Lecce are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Torino.
- Last 6 meetings: Lazio 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Lecce 0–0 Lazio.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lazio vs Lecce
Has the model earned this number?
Lazio at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lazio vs Lecce
Lazio
Serie A
- D1-1away to Napoli8 November 2026
- W2-1Cagliari1 November 2026
- W6-2away to Sassuolo27 October 2026
- W2-1Parma24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026
Lecce
Serie A
- D1-1away to Torino7 November 2026
- L1-2Genoa1 November 2026
- L1-5away to Frosinone29 October 2026
- L0-2Juventus25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Udinese18 October 2026
What these results say
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lecce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lecce scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lecce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lazio
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
Lecce
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lazio vs Lecce
Lazio and Lecce have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 3 of them to Lecce's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Lecce on 24 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Lecce | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Jan 2026
Serie ALecce 0–0 Lazio - 23 Nov 2025
Serie ALazio 2–0 Lecce - 25 May 2025
Serie ALazio 0–1 Lecce - 21 Dec 2024
Serie ALecce 1–2 Lazio - 14 Jan 2024
Serie ALazio 1–0 Lecce - 20 Aug 2023
Serie ALecce 2–1 Lazio
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Lazio's attack rates 63% above Lecce's, and Lazio concede 31% fewer than Lecce. That gives Lazio the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Lazio and Lecce
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lazio a 6.4% chance of the title and Lecce 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lazio against 0.74 for Lecce. Lazio's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.11 for Lecce.
How the model reaches 60% for Lazio to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lazio to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Lazio's ratings add 11 points and Lecce's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Lazio's ratings48%+11
- Lecce's ratings60%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lazio at home · Lecce away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LazioLecce
Lazio are 1st after 11 Serie A matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Lecce are 14th after 11 (between 2nd and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Lazio 11, Lecce 11.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Lecce have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lazio
- at Torino29 Nov · Serie Awin 48%
- vs Atalanta6 Dec · Serie Awin 45%
- vs AS Roma13 Dec · Serie Awin 27%
- at Frosinone20 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- at Fiorentina3 Jan · Serie Awin 43%
Lecce
- vs Atalanta29 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- at Napoli6 Dec · Serie Awin 15%
- vs Sassuolo13 Dec · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Inter20 Dec · Serie Awin 11%
- at Como3 Jan · Serie Awin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.