Leon
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Leon 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas
The model makes it 31% Leon, 28% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Leon 1.20, Guadalajara Chivas 1.45.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Edge to Guadalajara Chivas: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Leon's rating is built from 48 Liga MX matches and Guadalajara Chivas's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 801 matches.
Key facts
- Leon are 6th on 22 points from 14 games; Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd on 26 points from 14 games — Liga MX.
- Leon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Toluca.
- Guadalajara Chivas are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Monterrey.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 March 2026, ended Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 Leon.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 41% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Leon
Liga MX
- D1-1Toluca24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Tigres UANL21 October 2026
- L3-5Club America18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla10 October 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX
- W1-0away to Monterrey25 October 2026
- W1-0Necaxa21 October 2026
- D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas11 October 2026
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
What these results say
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Guadalajara Chivas had two goals or fewer.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 22 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leon
Chance to finish in the top eight · 44% today
Guadalajara Chivas
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 23% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon
Guadalajara Chivas and Leon have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Guadalajara Chivas won the last one 5–0 on 19 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 5 |
| Leon | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Mar 2026
Liga MXGuadalajara Chivas 5–0 Leon - 20 Jul 2025
Liga MXLeon 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas - 29 Jan 2025
Liga MXLeon 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas - 19 Sep 2024
Liga MXGuadalajara Chivas 2–0 Leon - 9 Mar 2024
Liga MXGuadalajara Chivas 1–2 Leon - 9 Sep 2023
Friendlies ClubsGuadalajara Chivas 2–0 Leon
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| Leon | 0.73 | 1.37 |
Leading scorers: Leon and Guadalajara Chivas
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado51
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Leon carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.78 for Guadalajara Chivas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Leon and 1.45 for Guadalajara Chivas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leon rate 0.73 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.82 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leon a 0.1% chance of the title and Guadalajara Chivas 22.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Leon against 1.45 for Guadalajara Chivas. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.95 for Guadalajara Chivas.
How the model reaches 41% for Guadalajara Chivas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Guadalajara Chivas to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Leon's ratings add 17 points and Guadalajara Chivas's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Leon's ratings46%+17
- Guadalajara Chivas's ratings41%−5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leon at home · Guadalajara Chivas away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LeonGuadalajara Chivas
Leon are 6th after 14 Liga MX matches (between 4th and 16th so far); Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd after 14 (between 1st and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Leon 14, Guadalajara Chivas 14.
Leon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Guadalajara Chivas have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Leon
- at Santos Laguna21 Nov · Liga MXwin 28%
Guadalajara Chivas
- vs Cruz Azul22 Nov · Liga MXwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.