Santa Clara
vs
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Santa Clara 1–0 GIL Vicente
The model makes it 41% Santa Clara, 32% draw, 27% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.14, GIL Vicente 0.83.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Santa Clara's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and GIL Vicente's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 8 games; GIL Vicente are 7th on 14 points from 9 games — Primeira Liga.
- Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Casa Pia.
- GIL Vicente have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FC Porto.
- Last 6 meetings: Santa Clara 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Santa Clara 1–0 GIL Vicente.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Clara at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga
- W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Arouca13 September 2026
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga
- L0-1FC Porto24 October 2026
- W2-1away to SC Braga19 October 2026
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
What these results say
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GIL Vicente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GIL Vicente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara
GIL Vicente and Santa Clara have met 6 times in the records we hold, Santa Clara has won 4 of them to GIL Vicente's 2.
The record
Santa Clara won the last one 1–0 on 21 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Santa Clara | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Mar 2026
Primeira LigaSanta Clara 1–0 GIL Vicente - 3 Nov 2025
Primeira LigaGIL Vicente 1–0 Santa Clara - 15 Mar 2025
Primeira LigaGIL Vicente 0–1 Santa Clara - 25 Oct 2024
Primeira LigaSanta Clara 2–1 GIL Vicente - 6 May 2023
Primeira LigaSanta Clara 3–2 GIL Vicente - 29 Dec 2022
Primeira LigaGIL Vicente 1–0 Santa Clara
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| Santa Clara | 0.85 | 0.82 |
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Santa Clara carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.81 for GIL Vicente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Santa Clara and 0.83 for GIL Vicente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Clara rate 0.85 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GIL Vicente rate 0.80 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Clara a 0.2% chance of the title and GIL Vicente 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Santa Clara against 0.83 for GIL Vicente. Santa Clara's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.89 for GIL Vicente.
How the model reaches 41% for Santa Clara to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Santa Clara to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Santa Clara's ratings take away 1 point and GIL Vicente's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Santa Clara's ratings40%−1
- GIL Vicente's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santa Clara at home · GIL Vicente away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Santa Clara 8, GIL Vicente 9.
Santa Clara score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); GIL Vicente have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Santa Clara
- at Moreirense28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 43%
- vs FC Porto6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 21%
- at Estoril13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 43%
GIL Vicente
- vs Estoril29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 48%
- at Estrela6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- vs Sporting CP13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 21%
- at Alverca20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.